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本文導讀目錄：

1、2017年上半年拖拉機市場分析（英）

2、2017年上半年拖拉機市場解讀

2017年上半年拖拉機市場分析（英） ♂

2017年上半年拖拉機市場分析（英）

An Interpretation of the Tractor Market in the First Half of 2017

To our amazement, changes and abnormalities are found in the tractor market in the first half of 2017, during which the domestic market experienced a downturn, while efficiency indicators rose steadily, leading brands had a slump in sales while marginal brands rose sharply, and domestic market saw a moderate downturn while export market made an unexpected achievement…

The insiders get confused about the complex situation. What exactly happed in the tractor market in the first half? We are now trying to recover the tractor market in the first half.

With a slight drop in sales, the market is sluggish

Statistics show that 176 tractor manufacturers above designated sizehave accumulativelyachieved the main business income and the profit of 34.495 billion yuan and 1.213 billion yuan separately in the first half of 2017, with year-on-year growth of 8.66% and 2.74%, respectively.

The main business income increased, but the tractor sales have shown a decline, resulting in the overall market downturn.Market survey shows that China’s total sale of various types of tractors reached 799800, with year-on-year decrease of 8.21%. Among which, the sales of large tractors, medium tractors and small tractors reached 36900, 228000 and 534900, respectively, with year-on-year decrease of 12.35%, 6.75% and 8.52%.

Seeing from China’s large and medium-sized tractor market, the large and medium-sized tractor market continued to decline slightly in the first half.From April 2016 to April 2017, the month-on-month growth of the large and medium-sized tractor market lingered inglide path for 13 consecutive months, which is rarely seen over the years.

Monthly Sales Trend of Large and Medium-sized Tractor Market from January 2016 to June 2017

Structural adjustment, medium tractor rises in market share

In the first half, the demand structure of power section has been adjusted greatly in the large and medium-sized tractor market, showing an outstanding feature that the middle power section is ‘prominent’and shows a good growth trend.

The market demand fortractors within the medium horsepower section is concentrated in 36.8~58.8 kW (50~80 hp).Market surveyshows that the section of 18.4~36.8kW (25~50hp) and the section of 58.8~73.5kW (80~100hp) see a decline to different extents on year-on-year basis, while the section of 36.8~58.8kW (50~80hp) shows a greater increase, making it a model type of medium tractors.

It is obvious that the power section of large horsepower tractors expands upward. The section of 80.9~102.9kW (110~140hp) sees a significant decline to different extents, while that of 102.9~132.3kW (140~180hp) shows a significant increase to different extents, especially the tractors within the section of 110.3~117.6kW (150~160hp) achieve a three-digit year-on-year growth.However, the upward extending of large tractors stops at the section of 132.3kW (180hp), and the models above sections of 132.3~147.0kW (180~200hp) and 147kW (200hp) show a decline to different extents on year-on-year basis.

Seeing from the perspective of market share, large tractors within sections of 73.5~80.9kW (100~110hp) and 95.6~102.9kW (130~140hp) become the leading models, accounting for 43.72%, with a decrease of 5.06percentage pointscompared with the same period of 2016; while the market share of the section of 102.9~117.6kW (140~160hp) shows a rapid growth, with an increase of 7.02 and 7.35 percentage points, respectively.

Regional concentration is improved, marginal market quietly rises up

In the first half of 2017, the regional market performance was characterized by an increase in regional concentration.Market survey shows that there are 11 regions with sales of more than 10000 units and the cumulative sales of 173200 units, accounting for 65.38% of the total, with an increase of 2.12percentage pointscompared with the same period of 2016.

From the perspective of case analysis in mainstream regions, the 11 mainstream regions show a trend of ‘7 up and 4 down’, of which Shangdong, Gansu, Hubei and Jiangxi show a two-digit increase on year-on-year basis, and the regional share also shows a uptrend to different extents; while traditional regions with strong demand show a sharp fall, such as Inner Mongolia, Hebei and Henan, etc.It thus can be seen that the increment of market demand for large and medium-sized tractors has reduced year by year with the saturation of the traditional regions with strong demand and restructuring, while that of some marginal regions remains strong year by year due to the rigid demand.

Regional Sales of Large and Medium-sized Tractors in 2017

Competition pattern Changes, marginal enterprises subdivide the market rapidly

In the first half of 2017, the competition concentration of large and medium-sized tractor market decreased obviously.Market survey shows that the top 5 brands achieved the cumulative sales of 100900 units, with a sharp year-on-year decline of 27.58%; and the market share is 38.08%, with a decrease of 10.5percentage pointscompared with the same period of 2016.Among the top 5 brands, known as ‘three-in-hand’”,YTO, LOVOL and DFAM saw a decline of more than 30%. On the contrary, John Deere showed a sharp rise in year-on-year growth of up to 25.88%, whose market share was increased by 1.07percentage points.

It is not hard to see that powerful brand ‘slumped’in sales, which may probably mean that the stable competition pattern for large and medium-sized tractors which has been maintained for years is facing great challenges.

The double pressures have become an important cause for such change.On the one hand, the competitiveness of foreign brands is gradually brought into play, and they are overcoming the market sales downturn caused due to years of high price, so as to further demonstrate their brand quality advantage through localization to eliminate price disadvantage.On the other hand, the encroachment of non-mainstream brands becomes another major factor in triggering the mainstream brand crisis, because they raid the market at a lower price, and such impact would be powerful in the situation of higher price sensitivity at present.

Meanwhile, it is found in the survey in Weifang that these non-mainstream brands are sharply subdividing the market of mainstream brands, during which some small enterprises gained growth against the trend and an enterprise even gained a year-on-year growth of up to 40% in the first half.At the same time, we also find that some low-end enterprises in Kiamuszeachieved good sales performance at a very low price in the absence of subsidies.All in all, the competition of the large and medium-sized tractor market is sharply subdivided in the context of market transformation and upgrading and demand downturn, showing a new competition pattern.

Market Share Tendency of Mainstream Brands in the Large and Medium-sized Tractor Market in the First Half of 2017

Exportsriseall the way

Tractor exports rise all the way, but the export structure is to be further adjusted.

First, exports grow slightly. Statistics show that the cumulative exports of various tractors reached 75979 in the first half, with year-on-year growth of 10.38%.Among them, the exports of wheeled tractors, walking tractor, crawler tractors or motor tractors reached 25146, 50764 and 69with year-on-year growth of 19.27%, 6.35% and 305.83%, respectively. 

Second, the amount of exports rises sharply. The cumulative amount of exports reached 243.141 million US dollars, with a significant year-on-year growth of 33.34%.Among them, the amount of exports of wheeled tractors, walking tractor, crawler tractors or motor tractors reached 200.0368 million US dollars, 42.589 million US dollars and 526300 US dollars, with year-on-year growth of 40.98%, 5.78% and 159.64% respectively.

From the perspective of export destination countries, the regional export concentration increases significantly.Statistics show that the the wheeled tractors are exported mainly to top 15 countries such as the US and Myanmar in the first half, accounting for 72.4%, which is increased by 5.66percentage pointscompared with the same period of 2016.Among the top 15 countries, 12 countries show a year-on-year growth to different extents in terms of exports, and the top 3 countries in exports, namely, the US, Myanmar and Ukraine, see the year-on-year growth of 84.77%, 60.05% and 23.9%, respectively.In addition, Russia reaches a year-on-year growth in exports up to 102.12%, while that of Algeria andUzbekistan rises up to 73.6 times and 11.3 times.

There are some certain reasons for decline or growth

With the rapid advancement of land transfer as well as the rapid rise of agricultural machinery and agricultural cooperatives, major clients of agricultural machinery, family farms, specialized planting households and other rural organizations in recent years, it should be the prime time for rapid development of the large and medium-sized tractor market, especially the large tractor market, but why it declined in the first half of 2017?

First, the market issaturated andthe rigid demand is in severe shortage. China’s tractor market has achieved farming mechanization many years ago after 10 years of rapid development, as a result of which the rigid demand is weakened. Second, agricultural subsidies are tardy. Although the central finance has allocated subsidies to various regions as early as the beginning of the year, it is slowly implemented in many regions. Third, the switch between ‘state II’and “‘state III”’. The switch between ‘state II’and ‘state III’has been completed in December 1, 2016, but it still has a profound impact on the market in the first half of 2017. In 2016, many dealers turned stock tractors with ‘state II’engine into second-hand agricultural machinery through a variety of ways, making an overdraft of the tractor market in the first half of 2017. Fourth, agricultural machinery sees a decline in income.In recent years, tractor investment income shrinks with the increasing rise in tractor population year by year, which suppresses the potential customers’ confidence to buy, producing a greater impact of the market.

Why the tractor benefit indicators show a moderate growth in the context of market decline?

The main reasons are as follows. First is the rise of emerging marginal enterprises. It is found in market survey that the sales performance of some small enterprises keeps increasing in the first half. Second isthe huge difference in brand performance. Other brands increase while some mainstream brands decrease, such as John Deere, Shifeng and other big brands. Third isthe change in sales structure. The increase in market share of large tractors in the tractor structure increases the whole tractor benefit. Fourth, enterprises increase market risk control while reducing the operating costs of enterprises, increasing the benefit contribution to the entire industry.

2017年上半年拖拉機市場解讀 ♂

2017年上半年拖拉機市場解讀

2017年上半年拖拉機市場的變局和怪象著實令人詫異：國內市場出現(xiàn)滑坡，效益指標卻穩(wěn)中有升；主流品牌銷售“跳水”，邊緣品牌卻大幅度攀升；國內市場溫和下行，出口市場卻逆勢飄紅……林林總總，讓業(yè)內人士一頭霧水。后市環(huán)境復雜多變，下半年市場走勢更加撲朔迷離。上半年的拖拉機市場到底怎么了？下半年又將演繹出何種走勢？我們試圖復盤上半年拖拉機市場，揭開下半年走勢之謎底。

穩(wěn)健運行，增幅趨緩

2017年上半年，從拖拉機行業(yè)運行的基本面看，呈現(xiàn)穩(wěn)健運行、增幅趨緩的特點。統(tǒng)計顯示，176家規(guī)模以上拖拉機生產企業(yè)累計實現(xiàn)主營業(yè)務收入、利潤344.95億元、12.13億元，同比分別增長8.66%和2.74%。其中，主營業(yè)務收入增幅在農機行業(yè)13個子行業(yè)中，排名第12位，僅僅高于農用及園林用金屬工具制造，低于平均增幅1.09個百分點；利潤也低于行業(yè)平均利潤2.66個百分點。市場需求低迷，導致虧損企業(yè)增加，在176家拖拉機企業(yè)中，有35家虧損，較之2016年同期多5家，虧損面達到19.89%，較之2016年同期增加2.84%。虧損額1.99億元，較之2016年同期降低2.23億元。市場競爭較為激烈，為了促銷需要，一些企業(yè)鋪貨、賒銷行為直接拉起應收賬款的大幅攀升，同比增幅達到了14.93%，市場風險加大。

全線飄紅，大幅度攀升

拖拉機出口全線飄紅，出口結構進一步調整。國內市場下滑，出口市場大幅度增長成為上半年拖拉機市場最為突出的特點。

首先，出口量小幅增長。統(tǒng)計顯示，上半年累計出口各種拖拉機75979臺，同比增長10.38%。其中，輪式拖拉機、手扶拖拉機、履帶式拖拉機或牽引車出口25146臺、50764臺和69臺，同比分別增長19.27%、6.35%和305.83%。占比33.1%、66.81%和0.09%，較之去年同期分別增長2.47%、-2.53和0.07%。

其次，出口額大幅度攀升。累計實現(xiàn)出口額24314.21萬美元，同比大幅度攀升33.34%。其中，輪式、手扶、履帶式拖拉機或牽引車出口額實現(xiàn)出口額20002.68萬美元、4258.9萬美元和52.63萬美元，同比分別增長40.98%、5.78%和159.64%；占比分別為82.27%、17.52%和0.22%，較之2016年同期分別增長4.46%、-4.56%和0.11%。

第三，出口額與出口量的同比增幅形成較大反差，主要是拖拉機出口結構發(fā)生較大變化所致，輪式拖拉機的大幅度增長以及大型化，直接拉高拖拉機出口額的巨大增長。出口18kW＜功率≤75kW的拖拉機占比高達74.53%，75kW＜功率≤130kW的拖拉機出口額也達到了15.55%，均呈現(xiàn)較大幅度增長，成為拉動出口額大幅度攀升的主要動力。

表1  2017年1—6月拖拉機出口量統(tǒng)計

從出口目的地國分析，出口區(qū)域集中度大幅度增長。統(tǒng)計顯示，上半年輪式拖拉機主要出口到美國、緬甸等前15個國家，累計實現(xiàn)出口額14481.19萬美元，較之2016年同期大幅度攀升53.37%；出口占比72.4%，較之2016年同期上揚5.66個百分點。在前15個國家中，有12個國家出口同比呈現(xiàn)不同程度的增長，其中，出口排名前三的美國、緬甸、烏克蘭同比分別增長84.77%、60.05%和23.9%，占比分別為20.32%、11.99%和8.5%，較之2016年同期分別上揚4.77、1.4和-1.2個百分點。俄羅斯出口同比增幅高達102.12%，阿爾及利亞、烏茲別克斯坦出口同比分別高達73.6倍和11.3倍。

小幅下滑，跌宕起伏

與拖拉機穩(wěn)健運行和出口市場全線飄紅迥異的是國內市場的溫和下行。上半年，拖拉機市場延續(xù)了2016年小幅下滑的特點。市場調查顯示，我國累計銷售各種型號拖拉機79.98萬臺，同比下降8.21%。其中，大拖、中拖、小拖分別銷售3.69萬臺、22.8萬臺和53.49萬臺，同比分別下降12.35%、6.75%和8.52%；占比4.61%、28.51%和66.88%，較之2016年同期分別增長-0.22%、0.45%和-0.23%。

從我國大中拖市場層面分析，上半年，大中拖市場小幅下滑。前6個月，累計銷售各種大中拖24.96萬臺，同比下降8.03%。

自2016年4月—2017年4月，大中拖市場月度同比連續(xù)13個月徘徊在下滑通道中，這是多年未遇的奇觀。2017年5月雖小幅攀升，但這種增長也是曇花一現(xiàn)，6月再度跌入下滑通道。從月度環(huán)比分析，跌宕起伏。進入2017年以來，2月、3月、5月大幅度增長，1月小幅下滑，4月、6月大幅度滑坡。

中間“凸起”，中拖占據主流

上半年，大中拖市場的功率段需求結構出現(xiàn)較大調整，呈現(xiàn)出較為突出的特點是中間功率段“凸起”呈現(xiàn)較好的增長，中拖和大拖情況極為相似。

從中拖各個功率段需求結構分析，呈現(xiàn)兩個突出特征：一是中拖在大中拖中的主流地位難以撼動。市場調查顯示，14.7~73.5 kW（20~100 hp）段中拖累計銷售22.8萬臺，同比下降6.75%；占比86.07%，較之2016年同期上揚0.76個百分點。二是功率段向中間集中的傾向十分強烈。18.4~36.8 kW（25~50 hp）段和58.8~73.5 kW（80~100 hp）同比出現(xiàn)不同程度的下滑，36.8~58.8 kW（50~80 hp）段則呈現(xiàn)較大增長，成為中型拖拉機的典型機型。從中拖各個馬力段的占比看，29.4~44.1 kW（40~60 hp）段占比高達49.69%，占比中拖的半壁江山。

上半年，我國73.5 kW（100 hp）以上大型拖拉機出人意料的大幅度下滑，市場調查顯示，1—6月，累計銷售各種大拖3.69萬臺，同比下降12.18%，占比13.93%，較之2016年同期下挫0.76個百分點。

從73.5 kW（100 hp）以上大拖市場分析，功率段上延的傾向更為強烈。80.9~102.9 kW（110~140 hp）段出現(xiàn)不同程度的大幅度下滑，102.9~132.3 kW（140~180 hp）段呈現(xiàn)不同程度的大幅度攀升，尤其是110.3~117.6 kW（150~160 hp）段拖拉機同比增幅達到三位數(shù)。但大拖的上延止于132.3 kW（180 hp）段，132.3~147.0 kW（180~200 hp）段和147 kW（200 hp）以上機型同比呈現(xiàn)不同程度的滑坡。

從占比看，73.5~80.9 kW（100~110 hp）段和95.6~102.9 kW（130~140 hp）大型拖拉機的主力機型，二者占比43.72%，較之2016年同期下挫5.06個百分點；102.9~117.6 kW（140~160 hp）段占比分別增長7.02和7.35個百分點，增速較快。

區(qū)域集中度提高，邊緣市場悄然崛起

大中拖傳統(tǒng)區(qū)域市場主要集中在東北、西北和華北的“三北”區(qū)域，近年，隨著“三北”趨勢市場漸趨飽和以及需求結構變化，區(qū)域格局正在悄然生變。2017年上半年，區(qū)域市場表現(xiàn)的突出特點是區(qū)域集中度提高。市場調查顯示，銷量超過1萬臺的區(qū)域共11個，累計銷售17.32萬臺，同比下降4.68%；占比65.38%，較之2016年同期上揚2.12個百分點。

從主流區(qū)域的個案分析，11個主流區(qū)域呈現(xiàn)“7上4下”，其中，山東、甘肅、湖北、江西同比呈現(xiàn)兩位數(shù)增長，區(qū)域占比也呈現(xiàn)不同程度的上揚；與之此消彼長的是傳統(tǒng)的需求強勢區(qū)域內蒙古、河北、河南出現(xiàn)較大幅度滑坡。由此不能看出，大中拖區(qū)域市場需求隨著傳統(tǒng)強勢區(qū)域需求的飽和以及結構性調整，增量正逐年調減。而一些邊緣區(qū)域因剛性需求的存在，正逐年走強。

下滑有因，增長有由

上半年，國內拖拉機市場下滑是有多重利空因素促成的。隨著土地流轉的加速推進，規(guī)?；?、集約化經營成為當今農村的必然發(fā)展趨勢。加之近年農機和農業(yè)合作社、農機大戶、家庭農場、種植專業(yè)戶等農村組織快速崛起，本應是大中拖市場尤其是大拖市場快速發(fā)展的最佳時期，但2017年上半卻出現(xiàn)了滑坡，究竟為何？

第一，市場飽和，剛性需求嚴重不足。我國拖拉機市場經過黃金10年的迅猛發(fā)展，早于多年前即已實現(xiàn)耕作機械化，近年大中拖市場依然保持了較好的增長，主要來自市場結構性調整所產生的更新需求，尤其是大拖市場崛起的拉動。事實上，這種非剛性需求產生的拉動力非常脆弱，一旦市場偶發(fā)因素發(fā)生，對市場都會帶來沉重的打擊。譬如自2016年至今，糧價的大幅度下跌，消費者購買力受到極大削弱，直接產生兩個后果：第一，更新周期延長，第二，購買能力不足。

第二，農機補貼遲緩。眾所周知，農機補貼對農機市場將產生重大的影響，中央雖然早于年初即將補貼下發(fā)至各個區(qū)域，但許多區(qū)域推進速度緩慢。這點從7月21日農業(yè)部發(fā)布消息即可了解到“截至6月底，各省已實施中央財政補貼資金41.5億元，已完成全年任務的22%”。由此不難看出，上半年，我國農機補貼給予市場的支撐力十分有限，對拖拉機市場產生了較大的利空影響。

第三，“國Ⅱ”“國Ⅲ”切換?！皣颉薄皣蟆鼻袚Q雖然已于2016年12月1日完成，但依然對2017年上半年的市場產生深刻影響。2016年許多經銷商通過各種方式將庫存“國Ⅱ”發(fā)動機的拖拉機變成二手農機，這部分拖拉機銷售透支了2017年上半年的拖拉機市場。

第四，農機收益下降。近年隨著拖拉機社會保有量的逐年攀升，拖拉機投資收益縮水，壓制了潛在消費者的購買信心，對市場產生較大影響。

市場下滑，為何拖拉機效益指標卻出現(xiàn)溫和增長？

其緣由主要有以下幾個方面：一是新興邊緣企業(yè)的崛起，市場調查中，我們發(fā)現(xiàn)一些小企業(yè)上半年銷售業(yè)績不降反升；二是品牌表現(xiàn)的巨大差異，在一些主流品牌下跌的同時，另一些品牌卻出現(xiàn)增長，譬如迪爾、時風等大品牌；三是銷售結構發(fā)生變化，大拖在拖拉機結構中占比的提高，拉升了整個拖拉機效益；四是企業(yè)加大市場風險控制，同時，壓低企業(yè)企業(yè)運營成本，對整個行業(yè)的效益貢獻率在提高。

市場競爭格局生變，邊緣企業(yè)急劇分化

2017年上半年，大中型拖拉機市場競爭集中度明顯下降。市場調查顯示，前5大品牌累計銷售10.09萬臺，同比大幅度下滑27.58%。占比38.08%，較之2016年同期下挫10.5個百分點。其中，號稱“三駕馬車”的中拖一拖、福田雷沃和常州東風下滑幅度均在30%以上，占比分別下挫4.63、5.49、2.38個百分點。與之相反，迪爾、山東時風同比出現(xiàn)不同程度的增長，尤其是迪爾，同比增幅高達25.88%，占比上揚了1.07個百分點。

不難看出，強勢品牌銷量“跳水”，是否意味著延續(xù)多年的大中型拖拉機市場競爭格局的穩(wěn)定性正面臨著巨大挑戰(zhàn)，而直接導致變局的因素異常復雜，雙重擠壓成為重要的原因。一方面正外資品牌的競爭力逐漸發(fā)揮出來，他們正克服多年因高價導致的市場銷量低迷，通過國產化消弭價格劣勢，并進一步彰顯產品品質優(yōu)勢。另一方面，非主流品牌蠶食成為催化主流品牌危機的又一重要因素，他們攜低價優(yōu)勢沖擊市場，在當前價格敏感度較高的情勢下這種沖擊力變得十分強大。同時，我們在濰坊的調研中，發(fā)現(xiàn)這些非主流品牌正在急劇分化，一些小品牌在低迷的市場下，關門歇業(yè)，在濰坊40多家拖拉機生產企業(yè)中，有12家今年就沒有生產。相反，一些企業(yè)卻逆勢增長，有一家企業(yè)，上半年同比增幅高達40%。這些邊緣企業(yè)也可能在這場變革中上升為主流品牌。同時，在佳木斯，我們還發(fā)現(xiàn)一些不入流的企業(yè)，以很低的價格，在沒有補貼的情況下，銷售火爆?？傊?，大中拖市場的競爭在市場轉型升級、需求低迷的環(huán)境下，正在急劇分化，演繹新的競爭格局。

后市不容樂觀，市場或將下滑

上半年拖拉機市場的基本走勢告訴我們，2017年的拖拉機市場面臨更為復雜的環(huán)境和不確定性，整個拖拉機雖利好與利空交織，但利空因素表現(xiàn)的更為強烈，由此我們預判，整個拖拉機市場或將呈現(xiàn)小幅下滑。

從利好因素看，第一，大型農機具市場增長將拉動大拖市場；第二，更新需求成為支撐市場的重要力量；第三，去年市場下滑，為今年市場增長提供了必要的條件。

與利好因素形成巨大反差，利空因素表現(xiàn)的更為強烈：其一，市場已經飽和，內生性需求嚴重不足，市場支撐力并不充分；其二，作為市場主要驅動力的農機補貼因拖拉機單臺補貼額度的下調，對市場購買行為將產生較大負面影響；其三，糧價下行，購買力下降，更新周期延長等因素對今年市場所產生的強烈利空影響不容小覷；其四，大型拖拉機在增長與中小拖的持續(xù)大幅度滑坡，一方面改變了市場需求結構，另一方面，拉低了整個市場需求量；其五，作業(yè)收益的邊際遞減將打擊潛在用戶的消費信心，新增用戶會進一步減少；其六，傳統(tǒng)熱點主流區(qū)域向非主流區(qū)域轉移過程中的形成的空窗，對今年乃至今后數(shù)年都將產生深刻的影響。

基于以上分析，預計大中型拖拉機市場2017年或將小幅滑坡，銷量維持在50余萬臺，同比下滑5%左右。其中大拖下滑幅度會收窄，中拖下滑幅度或將擴大。

我國小型拖拉機市場已經進入需求平臺期，市場表現(xiàn)受周期性需求的影響很大。2017年受整體市場利空環(huán)境和大中拖更新的雙向擠壓，市場或將更為慘淡。我們預計，全年市場銷量或將在110萬臺左右，市場降幅在10%上下。

三連跌后終見紅，或將演繹反彈大戲

拖拉機出口面臨較好的國際環(huán)境，首先，當前全球經濟出現(xiàn)持續(xù)改善跡象，回暖跡象有所表現(xiàn)；其次，中國倡導推動的“一路一帶”戰(zhàn)略將推動我國拖拉機對沿線國家的出口；再次，拖拉機的性價比優(yōu)勢及出口結構調整，大型拖拉機成為出口的驅動力；第四，亞洲、非洲市場成為拖拉機出口的新引擎；最后，拖拉機出口已遭遇三連跌，今年上半年終見紅，應在預料之中。說明去年的出口已經探底，出口勢能高企，加之形成的出口“洼地”。為今年出口增長提供了強大支撐。

綜合以上各種因素，我們對今年的拖拉機出口市場作如下預判：第一，2017年出口量或將小幅攀升，出口額或將大幅度攀升；第二，出口大型化趨勢不會改變，并呈強化之勢。第三，輪式拖拉機依然是優(yōu)勢出口品類，占比依然在80%以上；第四，出口區(qū)域較為廣泛，美國、俄羅斯、烏克蘭依然是出口主要區(qū)域。