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本文導讀目錄：

1、上半年收獲機市場小幅上揚

2、上半年收獲機械市場回放與下半年預判分析

3、上半年收獲機械市場回放與下半年預判分析（英）

4、上半年新疆農村富余勞動力轉移就業(yè)139.7萬人次

上半年收獲機市場小幅上揚 ♂

上半年收獲機市場小幅上揚

2015年上半年，我國收獲機械市場基本面呈現小幅上揚的特點。市場調查顯示，截至6月底，130多家收獲機械規(guī)模企業(yè)累計銷售各種收獲機械35.66萬臺，同比增長0.77%;較之2014年同期增速下降1.27個百分點。

從細分市場來看，2015年上半年呈現“兩升一降”的特點，即履帶式全喂入收割機、玉米收獲機出現增長，輪式谷物全喂入收割機下滑。

其中，輪式谷物收割機受2014年收益相對較差、整體市場保有量增加等因素影響，累計銷售4萬余臺，同比下降2.17%;履帶式全喂入收割機市場累計銷售4.13萬臺，同比增長23.6%;玉米收獲機市場累計銷售2.37萬臺，同比增長6.7%。

輪式谷物全喂入收割機在不同區(qū)域市場機型需求呈現差異。在中原市場，喂入量5公斤/秒以下產品需求持續(xù)萎縮，6～7公斤/秒的橫軸流產品成為銷售主體;東北市場6～7公斤/秒的縱軸流產品需求下滑，7公斤/秒以上機型發(fā)力。

履帶式全喂入收割機市場仍以4～5公斤/秒機型為主。從技術路線來看，由于縱軸流產品成熟度高，可靠性、作業(yè)效率、性能相比其他產品都具有明顯優(yōu)勢，銷售比重快速增長，雙滾筒及傳統(tǒng)產品受作業(yè)效率及切碎效果不理想等因素影響，銷量快速萎縮。

玉米收獲機市場中，2行自走式玉米機出現大幅度增長，這是繼2014年小3行出現批量事故之后市場需求出現的反彈;4行及4行以上機型增幅較小，與區(qū)域市場啟動關系密切。

黃淮海區(qū)域為輪式谷物全喂入收割機主要需求區(qū)域，占需求總量的97.6%。其中，山東、河南、安徽、江蘇等區(qū)域占比出現不同程度增長，河北、陜西、山西區(qū)域占比出現下降;東北市場尚未正式啟動，只有零星需求。

履帶式全喂入收割機區(qū)域需求主要集中在安徽和兩湖。其中，安徽、湖北、湖南區(qū)域需求大幅度攀升;東北市場未啟動，只有零星銷量。

玉米收獲機區(qū)域依然集中在黃淮海區(qū)域。山東、河南、京津冀等中原和西北區(qū)域受市場啟動較晚影響，市場銷量較同期有所減少，但占據主流;遼寧、吉林和黑龍江區(qū)域受2014年用戶收益普遍較好拉動，終端市場需求旺盛，但市場占比仍偏低;內蒙古市場受補貼政策影響，同比出現較大幅度下滑。

輪式谷物全喂入收割機市場集中度有所下降，占比較2014年同期下降1.97個百分點。其中，福田雷沃小麥機占比下降，中聯重機與洛陽中收出現不同程度增長。

履帶式全喂入收割機市場集中度也有所下滑，占比較之2014年同期下降6.98%。其中，久保田、江蘇沃得銷量均超萬臺;中聯重機、星光農機銷量出現不同程度的增長，中聯重機增幅較為強勁。

因上半年并非玉米收割機的銷售旺季，大品牌并沒有顯示出固有的強大優(yōu)勢，從銷量過千臺的品牌分析，前7大品牌累計銷售1.5萬余，同比增長30.05%，占比69.72%，較之去年同期提高11.1個點。

上半年收獲機械市場回放與下半年預判分析 ♂

上半年收獲機械市場回放與下半年預判分析

上半年，我國聯合收割機市場遭遇多年未有的滑鐵盧。三大糧食作物聯合收割機市場全線潰退，其中，履帶式谷物聯合收割機市場小幅下滑，輪式谷物聯合收割機、玉米聯合收獲機下滑幅度超三成。與之相反，收獲機械的出口額卻逆勢飄紅，成為上半年收獲機市場的最大看點。

3大主糧收獲機市場齊下滑

市場調查顯示，截至6月底，累計銷售各種聯合收割機7.45萬臺，同比下降19.86%；收獲機械市場整體月度走勢跌宕起伏。上半年月度同比均在下滑通道中運行，且跌幅均達到兩位數。月度環(huán)比形同“過山車”，大起大落。

在3大糧食作物收獲機械中，輪式谷物聯合收割機、玉米收獲機市場同比大幅滑坡，降幅均超過30%。履帶式谷物聯合收割機市場也未逃出下滑的命運，但下滑較為溫和，同比下滑3.66%。其它聯合收割機出現12.61%的較好增長。

從占比看，輪式谷物聯合收割機市場占比較之去年同期下挫7.87個百分點，履帶式谷物聯合收割機市場占比較之去年同期上揚9.16個百分點，玉米收獲機占比持續(xù)下降，較之去年同期下挫2.14個百分點。

區(qū)域集中度小幅增長，主流區(qū)域南移

上半年，收獲機區(qū)域市場呈現兩個較為突出的特征，一是主流區(qū)域集中度小幅攀升，市場調查顯示，前6個月，銷售前10大區(qū)域累計銷售各種收獲機6.47萬臺，同比下滑17.74%，占比86.85%，較之去年同期上揚2.18個百分點。

二是主流區(qū)域南移，在銷售前10區(qū)域中，銷量1萬臺以上的區(qū)域全部集中在安徽、江蘇和湖北等南方區(qū)域，其中安徽銷量繼續(xù)領跑，但同比出現16.41%的大幅度滑坡，江蘇、湖北、湖南同比大幅度攀升，增幅均在30%以上。占比較之去年同期也分別提高了7、5.33和1.64個百分點。

形成收獲機區(qū)域市場南移的主要原因是今年上半年履帶式谷物聯合收割機市場的降幅較為溫和，且占比較大。與之相反，以北方需求為主的輪式谷物聯合收割機、玉米收獲機的大幅度滑坡，造成北方收獲機區(qū)域市場的下滑，占比也出現較大的下降。

進口大幅度滑坡，出口“量降額增”

與國內市場大幅度滑坡不同的是進出口市場的冰火兩重天。一方面，進口大幅度下滑。統(tǒng)計顯示，截至6月底，累計進口各種收獲機437臺，實現進口額3892.94萬美元，同比分別下滑55.72%和47.43%。另一方面，出口演繹“量降額增”大戲。

量降額增，出口結構漸趨大型化

上半年，我國收獲機械出口量小幅滑坡，出口額大幅度攀升。統(tǒng)計顯示，截至6月底，累計出口各種收獲機18033臺，市場出口額15171.13萬美元，同比分別增長-7.64%和41.11%。

從出口品類看，聯合收割機出口量和出口額依然占據主要份額，且呈現大幅度攀升。統(tǒng)計顯示，聯合收割機的出口量和出口額分別達到了10503臺和14020.84萬美元，同比增長30.02%和58.07%；占比分別為58.24%和92.42%，較之去年同期大幅度上揚16.87和9.91個百分點。

從其它收獲機的出口表現看，出口量均呈現不同程度的下滑，其中甘蔗收獲機和其它未列明收獲機出口量同比呈現大幅度下滑。棉花采摘機出口額同比下滑60.69%，甘蔗收獲機和其它未列明收獲機出口額同比分別大幅度攀升195.99%和33.41%。

出口區(qū)域聚焦亞洲，集中度下降

聯合收割機出口區(qū)域主要集中在亞洲，統(tǒng)計顯示，亞洲出口量和出口額分別為9868臺和12537.25萬美元，占比為93.95%和89.42%。

從出口額前10的國家或地區(qū)看，出口區(qū)域集中度有所下降。統(tǒng)計顯示，截至今年6月底，聯合收割機共出口61個國家或地區(qū)（與去年同期出口國家或地區(qū)的個數相同），出口前10名的國家累計出口量和實現出口額分別為9861臺和12850.05萬美元，同比增長28.25%和53.26%；占比分別為93.89%和91.65%，較之去年同期分別下降1.22%和2.87%。

從今年上半年出口前10名的區(qū)域看，累計實現出口額12427.38萬美元，同比增長81.26%，占比88.64%，較之去年同期上揚11.34個百分點。其中印度尼西亞、伊朗和菲律賓作為出口前3名的區(qū)域同比分別大幅度攀升119.26%、409.64%和180.89%，占比7成以上，且均呈現較大幅度提高。越南、斯里蘭卡、緬甸和秘魯均呈現不同的程度的下滑。

收獲機出口市場為何增長？

第一，當前亞洲經濟出現持續(xù)改善跡象，外部需求回暖。尤其是新興市場中俄羅斯、印度經濟走勢也以擴張為主。全球主要經濟體延續(xù)復蘇態(tài)勢，國際市場需求有所改善，有利于我國收獲機出口增長。

第二，我國收割機出口仍存在許多有利條件，收割機產品質量穩(wěn)中求進，脫虛向實，供給側結構性改革繼續(xù)深化，性價比高，國際競爭力逐漸增強，在不發(fā)生大的風險情況下，2017年全年我國收割機進出口有望延續(xù)回穩(wěn)向好的勢頭。

第二，收獲機出口全面回升，對部分“一帶一路”沿線國家進出口增長。上半年，我國對印度尼西亞、伊朗等出口額大幅度攀升。

第四，出口大型化是“量降額增”的根本原因。從出口單價分析，一季度，收獲機出口單臺均價增長6200美元，其中聯合收割機單臺均價上揚2700美元，甘蔗收割機上漲了20.1萬美元。這種變化推進了收割機出口額的大幅度攀升。

第五，進口大幅度滑坡并不意外，隨著我國收割機市場的逐漸成熟以及國際大品牌落戶中國，絕大多數收獲機基本能滿足國內市場需求，進口下滑將成為收割機進口的常態(tài)。

但必須看到，我國收割機出口面臨的復雜和不確定因素依然較多。一是全球經濟復蘇乏力，市場需求尚未得到根本改善。二是當前全球經濟尚未根本好轉，未來大宗商品價格走勢存在較大不確定性。三是2016年出口規(guī)模逐季擴大，基數明顯抬高。這些因素都可能成為下半年我國收割機出口面臨的困難。

國內市場下滑分析

上半年，收獲機械市場下滑是多重因素綜合作用的結果，突出表現在以下幾個方面。

第一，我國收獲機市場正處于轉型的“空窗期”。統(tǒng)計顯示，2016年小麥、水稻、玉米3大糧食作物的機收水平2016年分別達到了93.74%、87.11%和66.68%，而經濟類作物的機收水平很低，其市場尚處于初期的啟動階段，難以支撐整個收獲機市場。不難發(fā)現，我國收獲機械市場正處于傳統(tǒng)市場降溫，新興市場尚未進入成長期的“空窗期”。

第二，農機補貼滯后。由于各種原因，上半年農機補貼進展緩慢。據相關消息，截至6月底，我國農機補貼的進度僅僅為22%。

第三，缺乏主流市場的強大支撐。上半年，3大作物收割機因各自的因素，出現不同程度的下滑。正是三大主流聯合收割機市場的同聲下跌，才導致整個市場的大幅度滑坡。

第四，糧食價格低迷，購買力下降。自去年開始至今的糧價處于低位，嚴重削弱了消費者的購買力，直接導致收獲機更新周期延長。

第五，市場透支。去年，出于競爭需要，一些廠家大力促銷。小品牌祭起價格大旗，以低價沖擊市場，大品牌跟隨，降價促銷。由此引發(fā)了一些消費者提前購買，市場透支較為嚴重。

上半年收獲機械市場回放與下半年預判分析（英） ♂

上半年收獲機械市場回放與下半年預判分析（英）

Market Review of Harvester in the First Half and Forecast and Analysis inthe Second Half

In the first half, China’s combine harvester market suffered a sharp decline that was not seen over the years. The three major crop combine harvester market slumped all the way, of which crawler grain combine harvester market reflected a slight decline, while wheeled grain combine harvester and corn harvester suffered a significant decline of more than 30%.On the contrary, the amount of exports of the harvester machinery made an unexpected achievement, serving as a selling point of the harvester market in the first half.

Three major grain harvesters market slide

Market survey shows that as of the end of June, the cumulative sale of a variety of combine harvesters reached 74,500units, with year-on-year decline of 19.86%; and the monthly performance of the harvester machinery market tends to suffer from ups and downson the whole.The monthly year-on-year growth in the first half remained in the glide path and the decline is two-digit. In addition, the month-on monthgrowth is filled with ups and downs, like a “roller coaster”.

Monthly Sales Tendency Chart of Combine Harvester Market from June 2016 to June 2017

With regard to the three major food crop harvesters, the market share of wheeled grain combine harvesters and corn harvesters drops off sharply on year-on-year basis, with a decline of more than 30% on average, while that of crawler grain combine harvesters also fails to escape from decline, but the decline is more moderate, which is 3.66% on year-on-year basis. As for other combine harvesters, they witness a rapid growth of 12.61%.

Seeing from the perspective of market share, the market share of wheeled grain combine harvesters is decreased by 7.87 percentage pointscompared with the same period last year, while that of crawler grain combine harvesters is increased by 9.16 percentage pointscompared with the same period last year, and that of corn harvesters continue to decline for 2.14 percentage points compared to the same period last year.

Market Demand Structure of Combine Harvesters in the First half of 2017

Regional concentration reflectesa slight rise, and the mainstream regions move southward

In the first half, the regional market of harvesters showed two more prominent features. One is the slight rise in the concentration of mainstream regions. Market survey shows that the first six months, the cumulative sales of a variety of harvesters of the top 10 regions in terms of sales reached 64,700units, with year-on-year decrease of 17.74%, those market share accounted for 86.85% of the total, with year-on-year growth of 2.18 percentage pointscompared with the same period last year.The other one is the southward movement of mainstream region. Among the top 10 regions in terms of sales, the regions with the sales above 10,000units are concentrated in Anhui, Jiangsu, Hubei and other southern regions, of which Anhui continues to lead the way, but it also shows a sharp decline of 16.41%, while Jiangsu, Hubei and Hunan gains a substantial increase of more than 30%. The market share is also increased by 7 percentage points, 5.33 percentage points and 1.64 percentage pointscompared with the same period last year, respectively.

The main reason for southward movement of the regional market of harvesters lies in the moderate decline in the crawler grain combine harvester market in the first half, as well as the relatively larger market share. On the contrary, the sharp decrease in the wheeled grain combine harvesters and corn harvesters which are based on the northern demand results in a decline in the regional market of harvesters in the north, and the market share also reflects a greater decline.

Regional Market Share of Harvesters in the First Half of 2017

Import suffers a sharp decline, exports increase while the total decrease

Different from the substantial decline in the domestic market, the import and export market suffers from ups and downs. On the one hand, import falls sharply.Statistics show that as of the end of June, the cumulative imports of various harvesters reached 437units, achieving the amount of imports of 38.9294 million US dollars, with year-on-year decrease of 55.72% and 47.43%, respectively. On the other hand, the export decreases in volume while increasing in amount.

Export structure tends to be large-scale with the decrease in volume and increase in amount

In the first half of the year, China’s harvester machinery exports fell slightly, while exports rose sharply.Statistics show that as of the end of June, the cumulative export of a variety of harvesters reached 18,033units, and the market exports reached 151.7113 million US dollars, with year-on-year growth of -7.64% and 41.11%, respectively.

From the export category, volume and amount of combine harvester exports still occupy a major shareand show a substantial increase.Statistics show that the volume and amount of combine harvester exports reached 10,503unitsand 140.2084 million US dollars, with year-on-year growthof 30.02% and 58.07%, respectively; accounting for 58.24% and 92.42% of the total, respectively, with a significant year-on-year growth of 16.87 percentage points and 9.91 percentage pointscompared with the same period last year.

From the perspective of exports of other harvesters, the export volume shows a decline to different extents, including cane harvesters and other unspecified harvester show a sharp year-on-year decline in terms of export. With regarding to the amount of exports, cotton picker show year-on-year decline of 60.69%, while cane harvesters and other unspecified harvesters reflect a sharp year-on-year growth of 195.99% and 33.41%, respectively.

Exporting regions target at Asia, making the concentration declined

Combine harvester exports are mainly concentrated in Asia, and statistics show that Asia’svolume and amount of exports were 9,868 units and 125.3725 million US dollars, accounting for 93.95% and 89.42%, respectively.

From the top 10 countries or regions in terms of amount of exports, exporting regions show a decline inconcentration. Statistics show that as of the end of June this year, the combine harvesters are exported from 61 countries or regions in total (same number of exporting countries or regions over the same period last year), and the top 10 countries achieved the cumulative export volume and export amount of 9,861units and 128.5005 US dollars, with year-on-year growth of 28.25% and 53.26%, respectively; accounting for 93.89% and 91.65%, respectively, which is decreased by 1.22% and 2.87% compared with the same period last year.

Among the top 10 regions in terms of exports in the first half this year, they achieved a cumulative export amount of 124.2738 million US dollars with year-on-year growth of 81.26%, and the market share accounted for 88.64%, with year-on-year growth of 11.34% compared with the same period last year. As the top 3 regions in terms of exports, Indonesia, Iran and the Philippines show a substantial increase of 119.26%, 409.64% and 180.89%, respectively, which are above 70%, showing a substantial increase. However, Vietnam, Sri Lanka, Burma and Peru showa decline to different extents.

Why is increasing in the harvester export market?

First, signs have been found of continuous improvement in the Asian economy at present and external demand has recovered, especially the economic tendency in emerging markets such as Russia and India is also expansion-based.In addition, the world’s major economies continue to recover, and the international market demand has been improved, which is conducive to the growth of China’s harvester export.

Second, there are still many favorable conditions for the export of China’s harvesters. For example, the product quality of the harvesters seeks improvement in stability and makes a transition from emptiness to solidity, the supply side structural reform continues to deepen, the cost performance is high and the international competitiveness has improved day by day. As a result, the imports and exports of China’s harvesters in 2017 are expected to sustain the momentum of returning to stable and making a turnaround.

Third, harvesterexport rebounds on the whole, driving the imports and exports of some countries along ‘the Belt and Road”’. In the first half, China saw a substantial increase in the amount of exports to Indonesia, Iran and other countries.

Fourth, export maximization is the root cause of ‘decrease in volume and increase in amount’.From the unit export price, the average price for each harvester is increased by 6,200 US dollars in the first quarter, of which that of the combine harvesters is increased by 2,700 US dollars, and cane harvesters is increased by 201,000 US dollars. As a result, such change has promoted the substantial increase in the amount of export of harvesters.

Fifth, we’re not surprised at the substantial decline in imports. With the gradual maturation of the harvester market and the introduction of large international brandsto China, most of the harvesters can basically satisfy the domestic market demand, as a result of which the import decline will become the normal of the harvesters.

However, it shall be noted that China’s harvester export is still confronted with many complex and uncertain factors. First, the global economic recovery is weak and market demand has not been fundamentally improved.Second, the current global economy has not fundamentally recovered, and there are still more uncertainties in the future bulk commodity price trend.Third, the base has been significantly elevated as the export scale expands quarter by quarter.All in all, these factors are likely to become the obstacles in the road of export of China’s harvesters in the second half this year.

Analysis of the decline in domestic market

In the first half, the decline in the harvesting machinery market is the result of multiple factors, which is manifested mainly in the following aspects.

First, China’s harvester market is in the “window period” of transition. Statistics show that the mechanical harvesting rate of three major grain crops (wheat, rice and corn) in 2016 reached 93.74%, 87.11% and 66.68%, respectively, while that of economic crops remained at a low level, because the market is still in the initial stage of start-up, making it difficult to support the whole harvester market.But it is not difficult to find that China’s harvesting machinery market is in the “window period”, during which the traditional market is declining while emerging market has not entered the growth period.

Second, subsidies for agricultural machinery are lagged. Owing to variety of reasons, subsidies for agricultural machinery make slow progress in the first half. According to relevant information, only22% of subsidies for agricultural machinery have been granted in China as of the end of June.

Third, it lacks the powerful support of mainstream markets. In the first half, the three major crop harvesters suffered a decline to different extents due to respective factors. And it is the simultaneous decline in the market of the three major combine harvesters that led to a sharp decline in the entire market.

Fourth, food prices are low and the purchasing power is falling. Since last year, food prices have been low, which severely weakens the consumer purchasing power, directly leading to a longer renewal cycle of the harvesters.

Last but not least, the market is overdrafted. In the past year, some manufacturers vigorously promoted for competition.Small brands abandoned the price principle to raid the market at a low price, and big brands followed closely to promote at a reduced price, triggering some customers to purchase in advance, as a result of which the market is severely overdrafted.

上半年新疆農村富余勞動力轉移就業(yè)139.7萬人次 ♂

上半年新疆農村富余勞動力轉移就業(yè)139.7萬人次

? ? 記者從自治區(qū)人力資源和社會保障廳獲悉：2018年上半年，新疆維吾爾自治區(qū)實現農村富余勞動力轉移就業(yè)139．7萬人次，完成全年目標任務的52％。

　　就地就近就業(yè)、疆內跨地區(qū)轉移及整建制有組織轉移到內地省市就業(yè)是新疆維吾爾自治區(qū)農村富余勞動力轉移就業(yè)的主要渠道。上半年，新疆維吾爾自治區(qū)實現就地就近轉移就業(yè)121．9萬人次，疆內跨地區(qū)轉移就業(yè)13．8萬人次。整建制有組織到內地就業(yè)16778人，完成目標任務的73％。

　　2018年上半年，按照喀什、和田地區(qū)城鄉(xiāng)富余勞動力有組織轉移就業(yè)三年規(guī)劃，在抓好22個深度貧困縣就業(yè)扶貧工作的同時，全力實施喀什、和田地區(qū)城鄉(xiāng)富余勞動力轉移就業(yè)。通過加大崗位開發(fā)力度、加強服務管理、給予經費保障等措施，使喀什、和田地區(qū)的城鄉(xiāng)富余勞動力實現跨地區(qū)轉移就業(yè)。截至6月底，共轉移兩地城鄉(xiāng)富余勞動力39127人，完成年度任務的111．79％。

　　據自治區(qū)人社廳農民工工作處相關負責人介紹，2018年，新疆維吾爾自治區(qū)進一步提高勞務輸出的組織化程度，各地積極拓寬就地就近就業(yè)渠道，組織化輸出程度明顯提升，就業(yè)穩(wěn)定性不斷提高。以喀什為代表的“衛(wèi)星工廠”就業(yè)在南疆四地州進展較快，近470家“衛(wèi)星工廠”在吸納貧困勞動力就業(yè)方面發(fā)揮了積極作用；昌吉回族自治州發(fā)展勞務組織就業(yè)，評定星級勞務組織23家，通過設立勞務產業(yè)聯合會，200多家勞務組織帶動就業(yè)8000多人；巴音郭楞蒙古自治州通過政策資金支持合作社、家庭農場等各類農村經濟實體，帶動就地就近就業(yè)；阿克蘇地區(qū)、哈密市、吐魯番市加強與工業(yè)、產業(yè)園區(qū)對接，建立崗位招聘信息共享機制，企業(yè)就業(yè)人數增長較快。